Update on crisis scenarios spreads optimism
As Burkhard Schwenker sees it, there are "plenty of reasons for optimism" with regard to the economic outlook for the next months. "Just one and a half years ago, the world was speculating not only about the depth of the recession, but even about a complete collapse of the system," he said at the Frankfurt office's New Year's reception on January 29. "Today, we now know that the world economy has proved to be relatively robust, a systemic collapse has not occurred."
Still the V-curve
The new "think:act CONTENT", the third Roland Berger scenario study since the fall of 2008 on how the economy will develop, predicts that despite uncertainties in forecasting, the V-shaped scenario remains the most likely course for overcoming the economic crisis. The publication admits that Roland Berger had underestimated the fierceness of the recession back in November 2008. "But what we definitely got right even then was the buoyancy that would drive a recovery, especially the dynamism of the Chinese economy," Burkhard Schwenker said in his Frankfurt speech.
Optimism for 2010
For this year, the prospects for recovery have improved considerably. And the findings of the publication are validated by recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for 2010. Restructuring, global footprint, and new tools for corporate management remain major issues for companies.
But the new think:act CONTENT makes it very clear that what is needed now more than ever is sound and careful judgement, coupled with the ability to interpret the trends in those parameters that are most important to economic development. These parameters are: growth drivers, protectionism, economic stimulus programs, monetary policy, raw materials, financial markets, and unemployment.
Careful with forecasts
The new publication also cautions against too much confidence in the indicators and forecasts. As Burkhard Schwenker warned in Frankfurt, "The ongoing upturn on the world's stock exchanges is being driven just as much by cheap money as it is by genuine confidence in the data on fundamentals."
Still the V-curve
The new "think:act CONTENT", the third Roland Berger scenario study since the fall of 2008 on how the economy will develop, predicts that despite uncertainties in forecasting, the V-shaped scenario remains the most likely course for overcoming the economic crisis. The publication admits that Roland Berger had underestimated the fierceness of the recession back in November 2008. "But what we definitely got right even then was the buoyancy that would drive a recovery, especially the dynamism of the Chinese economy," Burkhard Schwenker said in his Frankfurt speech.
Optimism for 2010
For this year, the prospects for recovery have improved considerably. And the findings of the publication are validated by recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for 2010. Restructuring, global footprint, and new tools for corporate management remain major issues for companies.
But the new think:act CONTENT makes it very clear that what is needed now more than ever is sound and careful judgement, coupled with the ability to interpret the trends in those parameters that are most important to economic development. These parameters are: growth drivers, protectionism, economic stimulus programs, monetary policy, raw materials, financial markets, and unemployment.
Careful with forecasts
The new publication also cautions against too much confidence in the indicators and forecasts. As Burkhard Schwenker warned in Frankfurt, "The ongoing upturn on the world's stock exchanges is being driven just as much by cheap money as it is by genuine confidence in the data on fundamentals."
